CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – A pre-election survey conducted by a political science class at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi provides insight into voter preferences in state, county and local races just weeks before the Nov. 7 general election.
Students in the Dr. Bob Bezdek’s Campaign Politics class interviewed more than 450 Nueces County residents between Oct. 9 and Oct. 24 to determine which candidates they support and where they stand on local issues such as Proposition 1, which, if passed, will create more than 7,200 feet of pedestrian only beaches. Participants were also asked their opinions on topics ranging from the Iraq war to legalization of gay and lesbian marriage.

The group, drawn from people who voted in the 2006 primary election, consisted of residents with a listed telephone number. Communities where a long distance telephone charge would have been assessed were excluded. While Bezdek stresses that the survey is an accurate reflection of voter preferences within 5 percentage points at the time it was taken, he cautions that generally election results are predicted most accurately with a poll the last three days of the campaign or with an Election-Day exit poll.

 “A survey is a ‘snapshot’ of voter intentions,” said Bezdek. “It’s comparable to taking a photo of the horses running in the Kentucky Derby as they go into the home stretch. Just because a horse is in the lead at the final turn doesn’t mean it’s going to be the first to cross the finish line.”

Methodological concerns not experienced in previous polls are also a factor, he said. First, there are an increasing number of people who rely on cell phones, and the students conducting the interviews had no way of contacting such individuals.  Second, recently registered voters could not be interviewed, and third, no one is capable of predicting accurately which demographic groups will actually turn out on Election Day. Bezdek added that the impact of negative advertising and unanticipated events are impossible to predict. 

The class’s findings for Nueces County were:
 
GOVERNOR                          U.S. CONGRESS                   94th District Court
Perry            37%                       Vaden          33%                     Sales        37%
Bell              29%                       Ortiz            55%                      Galvan        41%
Strayhorn     16%                       Undecided   12%                     Undecided   21%
Friedman       8%
Undecided    10%       
 
148th District Court                  319th District Court               County Judge       
Williams        40%                       Greenwell      53%                 Neal                    50%
Saldaña          44%                      Zamora          29%               Olivarez              40%
Undecided     16%                       Undecided     18%                 Undecided          10%         
                                                      
 District Clerk                         SHERIFF                                CC Election—Proposition 1
 Cavazos       21%                     Kaelin             50%                 For                   28%
  Perez           54%                    Rodríguez        35%                 Against             53%
 Undecided   25%                     Flores              2%                  Undecided       19%
                                              
Other findings:
 
All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting or not?
  40% - Worth fighting 
  51% - Not worth fighting    
    9% - Don’t know 
 
 Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?
    4% - Strongly favor   
  17% - Favor
  25% - Oppose
  38% - Strongly oppose
  16% - Don’t know
 
All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?
  37% - Right direction
  50% - Wrong direction
  13% - Don’t know
 
In general, do you think the policies of the Bush administration favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or do they treat all groups the same?
  34% - All equally
   2% - The poor
   7% - The middle class
 51% - The rich
   6% - Don’t know
 
Which opinion best agrees with yours on abortion:
   18% - By law, it should never be permitted
   39% - The law should permit abortion only in case of rape, incest, or when the mother’s life is in danger
   11% - The law should permit abortion for reasons other than rape, incest, or danger to the mother’s life, but only if the          need for abortion has been clearly established
   32% - By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice